We are well into the 2022 season and it is time for some updated dynasty trade values! Saquon Barkley is climbing up the chart as are many of the 2022 rookie wide receivers. I know some of my leagues have people already dropping out of contention and selling early. Make sure to scoop up value when you can and prepare to win your league. It is time to start looking at your rosters and making some tough decisions. But, there is still a lot of season left and things can change pretty rapidly. There are managers out there with Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams who thought they were contending this year (me). Things change fast.
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Make sure to float out some trade requests. ABT: Always be trading.
Here is the Chart:
Based on popular request, here is a downloadable Excel sheet version
What is different with this chart?
I was able to partner here with the experts at The Athletic to make a special edition of the dynasty trade value chart. I did this by generating exclusive values based on the experts here and then comparing those values vs. my published market (ECR) version of the chart. The ECR (+/-) column can be used to find which players the experts here want you to buy or sell and help identify some key market deficiencies! That way you can really get an edge on your league mates.
For example, Javontae William’s trade value is calculated to be 61, a full 6 points higher than the consensus! Some potential value you might be able to gain if you can trade for him at a value of 56. Use this chart to look for those buys or sells and make some offers.
How to use a trade value chart
These are tools to make your life easier! The left-most column is the assigned trade value for a row. All players and picks in a row have the same value and, in theory, could be traded for each other. Players are separated into columns by position. The ECR column is calculated based on my “Reddit Adjusted” column that I publish on Patreon, Twitter, and Reddit. Plus (+) means the trade value here is above ECR and minus (-) is the inverse.
If you are looking at larger trades (i.e. 2-for-2 or 3-for-3) you just sum the sides of each trade to get an idea of fairness. Make sure to account for consolidating depth and trying to acquire stud players by overpaying. These are really a guideline to look for reasonable trades.
How I make these charts
The backbone of my model is seeded by expert consensus ranks that I aggregate from as many published sources as I can find. The goal is to try and average as much of the market as I can into one analysis. I feed the ranks into my database (clean up the names) and average positional ranks before running them through my model. Next, I assign rank-based trade values built on historic values as a function of positional scarcity. In all my models, running backs are the backbone, and then WRs, TEs, and QB values are determined based on a function of nearby RB values. The dynasty rookie picks are a lot more complex. So, I manually go through crowdsource data (Twitter polls, KTC, etc.) and create a high and low-value range for groups of picks (early, mid, late). Post-NFL draft, the current year rookie picks get a little easier to add to the chart. I will compare picks to other players at all positions to try and dial in the placement.
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The 2023 picks are higher than normal n+1 rookie picks would be due to insane hype. The 2024 picks are about where I would expect n+2 picks to be located. They lose value due to not being relevant for two years. I like scoring points and winning this year.
Happy trading friends!
(Top photo: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
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