PITTSBURGH — The Steelers’ playoff chances ballooned from 1 percent to 3 percent with a last-second, “Immaculate” drive led by Kenny Pickett on Christmas Eve. Could we look back on that drive in two weeks and say it was a playoff saver?
With the Steelers at 7-8 with two AFC North games remaining, the odds are still astronomically against their qualifying for the playoffs for the third consecutive year. After the Chargers’ win over the Colts on Monday night, Pittsburgh’s odds dropped from 3 percent to 2 percent, according to the New York Times. By the model of The Athletic’s Austin Mock the Steelers’ odds dropped from 2.5 percent to 2.3. But there is a glimmer of hope — something that even the most optimistic Steelers fan couldn’t even fathom after a 2-6 start and with a rookie starting quarterback.
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But now, there is not only hope but also optimism, based on recent results, that the 2.3 percent chance could turn into 100 percent by the end of the season.
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Just last year, the Steelers faced long odds of making the playoffs late in the year. They had a 12 percent chance after a Dec. 26 loss to the Chiefs that dropped them to the 11th-place team in the AFC. They were 7-7-1 with games against the Browns and Ravens left on the schedule.
In some ways, they are a little better off this time around.
Got that dawg in him
📲 Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/E0NYNUAdNa pic.twitter.com/I4fnw9zVEw
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 25, 2022
Pittsburgh is again the 11th-place team and plays two teams with major flaws to close out the season. The Steelers could also be considered majorly flawed, but they have won five of their past seven, and only three of their losses have come by more than one possession (none since October).
Last year, the Steelers not only had to win their final two games but lso needed — just in Week 18 — the Jaguars to beat the two-touchdown-favorite Colts and the Sunday night game between the Chargers and Raiders to not end in a tie. The latter game nearly ended in a tie, as neither team needed to win and it came down to a kick on the final play of overtime.
Considering that, this year’s scenario could be more attainable.
“We’ll just take it one game at a time,” Cameron Heyward said. “That’s all we can control. You know, there is more football ahead of us, but I like it that way. You know, we’ve got to just take care of business. That’s all we can do.”
With the Chargers beating the Colts, there is only one plausible scenario (not including permutations including ties) by which the Steelers can get into the playoffs.
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First, they have to win their final two games. If they do win out, according to the Times model, their odds to reach the playoffs are 8 percent — although that number was cut in half from 16 by the Chargers’ win over the Colts.
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After that, Pittsburgh would need help as follows:
- Dolphins lose at the Patriots in Week 17 and at home to the Jets in Week 18
- Jets lose in Week 17 at Seattle
- Patriots lose in Week 18 at Buffalo
The Dolphins (8-7), Jets (7-8) and Patriots (7-8) each hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Steelers after beating them earlier this season, so the Steelers must finish ahead in the standings. That means Miami must lose out … but because the Dolphins — who now have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in concussion protocol yet again — play both the Jets and the Patriots, the Steelers need those teams to lose their other remaining game. (Not to go down a rabbit hole, but a Dolphins tie could crack the window open a tad wider.)
Trying to figure out how the Steelers can still make the playoffs pic.twitter.com/49x8DPce48
— Mike DeFabo (@MikeDeFabo) December 26, 2022
There are multiple scenarios by which the Steelers could be eliminated before they take the field Sunday night in Baltimore, a game that was flexed from 1 p.m. to 8:15 p.m. earlier this week.
“I am big on doing your job and controlling what you can control,” Minkah Fitzpatrick said. “All we can control is winning our games.”
Mike Tomlin has preached that since the team started 2-6, and it’s definitely permeated the psyche of the players, who continue to regurgitate the “control what you can control” line.
“Trying to control what we can control,” Connor Heyward said.
“We’ve just got to take it a week at a time,” Pickett said.
It is still unlikely they make the playoffs, even though the path might be more plausible than it was last year.
Before 2021, the last time the Steelers needed everything to fall their way to get in over the final two weeks was 2013.
After a dreadful 0-4 start, the Steelers rebounded to put themselves in playoff contention. They needed an eight-game parlay over the final two weeks of the season to get in. It all came down to the Chiefs (11-4) needing to beat San Diego (8-7) in Week 17. The Chiefs sat many of their players but still led for most of the game.
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Ryan Succop missed a 41-yard field goal attempt to win it, sending the game to overtime, where the Chargers won. The NFL later conceded that on the end-of-regulation field goal, a penalty should have been called on the Chargers for lining up seven players on one side of the long snapper.
This year, the Steelers have been hurt by their poor conference record. They are 4-1 against the NFC, but that’s not taken into consideration with tiebreakers. They are 3-7 against the AFC. Conference record is the next tiebreaker after head-to-head records.
Regardless of whether they make it, it has been a remarkable turnaround from the bye week and a remarkable run by Tomlin, who always finds a way to keep his team in playoff contention.
The Steelers have played just one game in Tomlin’s 256-game career while already eliminated from the postseason. That came in the 2012 season finale, after a 13-10 loss to the Bengals in Week 16 dropped them to 7-8 and put the final nail in the coffin. (They beat the Browns 24-10 in Week 17 to finish 8-8.) To put that into perspective, Bill Belichick’s Patriots have played two games while eliminated over the same span and have won the division in 13 of those 15 years.
Since the turn of the century, or the Kevin Colbert era, the Steelers have played 351 games. They were already eliminated from playoff contention entering four of those games (two in 2003, one in 2006 and one in 2012).
(Photo of Cam Heyward: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
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